Counterpoint's Meg McGee has "the last word" after every new edition of Counterpoint. After reading her latest recap, hear audio of the discussion she's referencing embedded below the post:
On last Friday’s show, our panelists William Ng, Matt De La Fe, and I discussed the US policy towards Egypt and the regional implications if it becomes a failed state. President Obama’s decision to cancel the semi-annual military exercises came as no surprise, as Egypt’s military is a little pre-occupied right now. However, there was no talk of cutting the $1.3bn in aid just yet. Even though the US talks about its commitment to democracy and human rights, it continues to bankroll countries that have a questionable human rights record.
De Le Fe wanted to draw comparisons between Egypt and Syria AND Iran. I don’t think making generalizations about three different Middle Eastern states is very educated. Egypt and Syria are not the same. In Syria, the military is punishing every Syrian not just a select few. In Egypt, the government crackdown is against the pro-Morsi supporters. Egypt is certainly not Iran, either. Egypt is majority Sunni, Iran (and Syria) are majority Shia. Iran is not a failed state and the revolution in 1979 was against a US-backed shah. Anyone with a history book can figure that out. One similarity I did find between Egypt and Syria is this: they are both backed by superpowers. People complain about Putin supporting the Syrian regime while they commit mass murder but one could argue Obama is doing the same by not cutting aid with Egypt. But I digress.
The US may not have that much influence within Egypt’s internal politics. As IR theorist Stephen Walt stated recently in Foreign Policy Magazine, “Aid to Egypt’s military isn’t buying the United States any leverage and U.S. aid is dwarfed by the funds that the Gulf Arab states are pouring in.” And to those that say Egypt is an “existential threat” to Israel’s security, when the first Egyptian revolution happened, some American military officials feared that with the Muslim Brotherhood in charge in Egypt, they would not uphold the peace treaty with Israel. However, the Muslim Brotherhood had every intention on keeping a close relationship with the US because they received $1.3 billion in aid from them yearly. The Brotherhood’s Islamic politics did not hamper its foreign policy especially towards Israel and the US because of the amount of influence it had.
But now that the Muslim Brotherhood is being ousted from Egyptian politics, the US can’t be sure how far their money will go. My policy recommendation would be to significantly reduce or cut completely the amount of aid Egypt gets. We don’t know how the Egyptian coup will play out, but one thing is for sure: there will be blood. So the US should decide now if they want blood on their hands through the continued support of the military, or do they want to do stay out of another country’s internal politics. (The latter would be a surprise)
Below is audio of the discussion on the crisis in Egypt and the options available to the U.S. government. Counterpoint airs live Fridays at 1p.m. EST